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We develop a dynamic microsimulation model to project the labour force and economic dependency ratios in the USA from 2022 to 2060 taking population projections and the large inequalities between population groups of different race or ethnicity and gender into account. We contrast policy scenarios and show the potential impact that closing the gaps in education, health and participation rates between population sub groups can have on increasing labour force in the USA. Our baseline projections indicate an increase of the labour force of about 27 million persons by 2060 which is mainly caused by population growth. The downstream effects of removing disparities in population health and education al attainment on labour force participation can add about 10 percent (+2.6 million persons) to our baseline projections. The potential effects of closing gaps between genders and between minority groups and the n on Hispanic White population, however, are much larger if we assume the equalisation of participation rates for individuals with similar characteristics. Closing gender gaps within ethno-racial groups, for instance, can add 9.9 to 14.3 million persons to the labour force depending on the assumptions. Overall, reducing disparities in labour force participation rates has the potential to more than compensate the effects of demographic aging on the economic dependency ratio.

SUSTAINWELL addresses the long-term socio-economic impact of population ageing on European society. The aims of this project will be to identify: first, opportunities arising from longer and healthy life expectancy and in general from the silver economy; second, resilient responses from individuals and households (in market and non-market outcomes) and from other actors in society facing the challenges posed by ageing; third, the impact of ageing on inequality (both within and between generations), knowing that social cohesion is crucial to face the ageing challenge; fourth, gender and lifecycle balanced policies helping the sandwich-generation to sustain baby-boomers entering retirement, without decreasing fertility nor investment in education. Particular attention will be devoted to the role of job design to foster intergenerational complementarities in the labour market. To better understand the benefits of living longer, SUSTAINWELL will take a holistic perspective by: investigating the behavioural reactions in key lifetime decisions along the lifecycle (education, skills, fertility, work effort, home production, savings and retirement) and the decision process itself leading to prosocial behaviour; and accounting for the three ways to provide welbeing along the lifecycle (market, family and welfare state). Both dimensions will be analysed by extending the National Transfer Accounts method (using comparable EU datasets) to be incorporated as inputs in a dynamic microsimulation comparative model quantifying the future of ageing societies. The project will take a new multidisciplinary approach in different basic (Neuroscience) and social sciences (Economics, Demographics, Sociology and Political Science). The results of the project will be pursued in permanent contact with stakeholders, to deliver knowledge and evidence-based policy measures by applying a participatory design and co-creation activities.

Economic development in parallel to demographic changes over the past decades have altered family structures and the way care is given and received along the lifecycle. This long-running trend has been recently affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, especially the tragic rates of mortality in too many institutional care settings for the elderly, and the widespread closures of schools. These dramatic changes make more evident how the market economy relies on non-market economic activities to provide welfare in general and care to dependent children and elders. At the same time, it has highlighted just how much the informal care economy relates to inequality in general and exposes the gender gap.

Ziel ist es, ein für Zwecke einer regionalisierten Bevölkerungsprognose operativ einsetzbares Mikrosimulationsmodell mit den Merkmalen Alter, Geschlecht, Region sowie zumindest zwei weiteren Personenmerkmalen zu entwickeln. Die technische Unterstützung umfasst: (1) Beratung zu Modellarchitektur, Design sowie Software-Lösungen, (2) Entwicklung von Modell-Prototypen, (3) Schulung, (4) Unterstützung bei Code-Entwicklung, statistischer Modellierung, Parametrisierung, Validierung und Debugging, (5) Unterstützung in der Entwicklung von Dokumentationen und (6) Unterstützung in der Entwicklung von Szenarien und Aufbereitung von Simulationsergebnissen.